⚽ Football · New Zealand Northern League · 27/06, 03:00
Bay Olympic vs Fencibles United
59%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bay Olympic 1411 · Fencibles United 1572
| Bay Olympic | Draw | Fencibles United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| Market | 17% | 19% | 64% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.32Bay Olympic 1.31 · Fencibles United 2.01
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 54%
BTTSYes · 64%
Most likely total3 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fencibles United (rating 1411 vs 1572).
- High estimate: 3.32 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Fencibles United: 2-0-1.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.2 + 1.1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bay Olympic | Fencibles United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 2.8 | 2.6 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/10/80% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.1 | 2.2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.3 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Bay Olympic 1–0–2 Fencibles United
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 New Zealand Northern League | Fencibles United | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Bay Olympic |
| 23/08/25 New Zealand Northern League | Fencibles United | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Bay Olympic |
| 24/05/25 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Fencibles United |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Bay Olympic
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 01/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Cup |
1-3 | 2-6 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
Fencibles United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
4-1 | 7-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 29/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |