⚽ Football · New Zealand Northern League · 27/06, 05:00
Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs Birkenhead United
41%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Eastern Suburbs Auckland 1559 · Birkenhead United 1607
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | Draw | Birkenhead United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 32% | 33% |
| Market | 29% | 24% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.21Eastern Suburbs Auckland 1.13 · Birkenhead United 1.08
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 57%
BTTSNo · 54%
Most likely total2 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birkenhead United (rating 1559 vs 1607).
- H2H favours Birkenhead United: 3-1-2.
- Early goals: 2.2 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 1.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 16.2 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | Birkenhead United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0 | 1.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.6 | 5 / 9.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Eastern Suburbs Auckland 2–1–3 Birkenhead United
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 New Zealand Northern League | Birkenhead United | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland |
| 30/08/25 New Zealand Northern League | Birkenhead United | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland |
| 17/05/25 New Zealand Northern League | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Birkenhead United |
| 10/11/24 New Zealand Football Championship | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Birkenhead United |
| 13/07/24 New Zealand Northern League | Birkenhead United | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland |
| 04/05/24 New Zealand Northern League | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Birkenhead United |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Eastern Suburbs Auckland
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | Melville United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 22/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
Birkenhead United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 8 | W |
| 01/06 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Cup |
3-1 | 6-2 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 28/05 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 6-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 4 | W |