⚽ Football · New Zealand Northern League · 27/06, 02:00
Auckland City vs Western Springs AFC
60%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Auckland City 1608 · Western Springs AFC 1479
| Auckland City | Draw | Western Springs AFC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| Market | 56% | 22% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.38Auckland City 2.3 · Western Springs AFC 1.08
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 51%
BTTSYes · 60%
Most likely total3 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland City (rating 1608 vs 1479).
- High estimate: 3.38 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Auckland City: 3-1-2.
- Early goals: 1.5 combined avg at HT (0.9 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Auckland City | Western Springs AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.8 | 1.1 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland City 3–1–2 Western Springs AFC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 New Zealand Northern League | Western Springs AFC | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Auckland City |
| 30/11/25 New Zealand Football Championship | Western Springs AFC | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Auckland City |
| 26/07/25 New Zealand Northern League | Western Springs AFC | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Auckland City |
| 12/04/25 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland City | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Western Springs AFC |
| 03/11/24 New Zealand Football Championship | Auckland City | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Western Springs AFC |
| 20/07/24 New Zealand Northern League | Western Springs AFC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Auckland City |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Auckland City
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Western Springs AFC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-3 | 2-4 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 6 | L |