⚽ Football · New Zealand Northern League · 27/06, 05:00
Auckland United FC vs Melville United
69%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Auckland United FC 1558 · Melville United 1405
| Auckland United FC | Draw | Melville United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 18% | 15% |
| Market | 72% | 16% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.8 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.8Auckland United FC 2.59 · Melville United 1.21
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 66%
Most likely total3 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland United FC (rating 1558 vs 1405).
- High estimate: 3.8 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Auckland United FC: 6-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.4 combined avg at HT (1 + 0.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Auckland United FC | Melville United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.2 | 1.5 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.3 | 3.8 / 0.3 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland United FC 6–0–0 Melville United
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 New Zealand Northern League | Melville United | 1-4 HT 1-0 | Auckland United FC |
| 05/07/25 New Zealand Cup | Auckland United FC | 7-1 HT 4-0 | Melville United |
| 27/07/24 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland United FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Melville United |
| 13/04/24 New Zealand Northern League | Melville United | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Auckland United FC |
| 26/08/23 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland United FC | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Melville United |
| 20/05/23 New Zealand Northern League | Melville United | 1-5 HT 0-1 | Auckland United FC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Auckland United FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 7-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
Melville United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 01/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 28/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |