⚽ Football · New Zealand Central League · 27/06, 02:30
Miramar Rangers vs Island Bay United
72%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Miramar Rangers 1632 · Island Bay United 1439
| Miramar Rangers | Draw | Island Bay United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Market | 72% | 16% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.64Miramar Rangers 2.65 · Island Bay United 1
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Miramar Rangers (rating 1632 vs 1439).
- High estimate: 3.64 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Miramar Rangers: 6-0-0.
- Early goals: 2.2 combined avg at HT (0.9 + 1.3) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Miramar Rangers | Island Bay United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.1 | 1.3 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.6 | 1.4 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 2.1 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Miramar Rangers 6–0–0 Island Bay United
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 New Zealand Central League | Island Bay United | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Miramar Rangers |
| 02/08/25 New Zealand Central League | Island Bay United | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Miramar Rangers |
| 03/05/25 New Zealand Central League | Miramar Rangers | 6-1 HT 2-1 | Island Bay United |
| 22/06/24 New Zealand Central League | Miramar Rangers | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Island Bay United |
| 06/04/24 New Zealand Central League | Island Bay United | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Miramar Rangers |
| 03/06/19 New Zealand Cup | Miramar Rangers | 8-1 HT 6-1 | Island Bay United |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Miramar Rangers
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
Island Bay United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 03/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Cup |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
5-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 3 | 1 | L |