⚽ Football · New Zealand Central League · 27/06, 03:00
Petone FC vs Wellington Phoenix Reserves
39%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Petone FC 1473 · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1448
| Petone FC | Draw | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 26% | 26% |
| Market | 32% | 21% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.97Petone FC 1.75 · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1.22
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 56%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total2 goals
🔑 Match keys
- H2H favours Wellington Phoenix Reserves: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Petone FC | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1 | 0.8 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.4 | 3.6 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Petone FC 1–3–2 Wellington Phoenix Reserves
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 New Zealand Central League | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Petone FC |
| 26/07/25 New Zealand Central League | Petone FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves |
| 26/04/25 New Zealand Central League | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Petone FC |
| 22/06/24 New Zealand Central League | Petone FC | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves |
| 06/04/24 New Zealand Central League | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Petone FC |
| 12/11/23 New Zealand Football Championship | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Petone FC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Petone FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 06/06 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
Wellington Phoenix Reserves
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 03/06 | Island Bay United New Zealand Cup |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 12 | 3 | W |