Football · New Zealand Central League · 28/06, 04:00
Napier City Rovers vs Wellington Olympic
38%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Napier City Rovers 1571 · Wellington Olympic 1588
| Napier City Rovers | Draw | Wellington Olympic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Market | 38% | 24% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.14Napier City Rovers 1.57 · Wellington Olympic 1.57
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 52%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- High estimate: 3.14 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Wellington Olympic: 3-1-2.
- Early goals: 2.2 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 1.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Napier City Rovers | Wellington Olympic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 0.7 | 3.1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 1.4 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/22/33% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 7.8 | 2.5 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Napier City Rovers 2–1–3 Wellington Olympic
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 New Zealand Central League | Wellington Olympic | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Napier City Rovers |
| 30/08/25 New Zealand Central League | Wellington Olympic | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Napier City Rovers |
| 06/07/25 New Zealand Cup | Napier City Rovers | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Wellington Olympic |
| 25/05/25 New Zealand Central League | Napier City Rovers | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Wellington Olympic |
| 23/11/24 New Zealand Football Championship | Wellington Olympic | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Napier City Rovers |
| 08/06/24 New Zealand Central League | Wellington Olympic | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Napier City Rovers |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Napier City Rovers
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 19 | 2 | W |
Wellington Olympic
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 6-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 19/04 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |