Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 27/06, 14:00
SK Super Nova II vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SK Super Nova II 1505 · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1445
| SK Super Nova II | Draw | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Market | 54% | 22% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.53SK Super Nova II 2.14 · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1.39
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SK Super Nova II (rating 1505 vs 1445).
- High estimate: 3.53 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.6 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SK Super Nova II | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.6 | 2.5 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 1.9 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SK Super Nova II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga |
0-5 | 3-7 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/05 | Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 13/05 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 20/03 | JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 1-4 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga |
0-2 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga |
1-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga |
1-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 27/04 | Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 04/04 | JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 21/03 | Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | L |