Football · Sweden 2.div Norrland · 28/06, 14:00
Lucksta IF vs Gottne IF
52%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucksta IF 1465 · Gottne IF 1550
| Lucksta IF | Draw | Gottne IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 22% | 52% |
| Market | 26% | 22% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Profitable betsOver 2.5 goals · 74% · @1.44 · +6%
Expected goals3.83Lucksta IF 1.58 · Gottne IF 2.26
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gottne IF (rating 1465 vs 1550).
- High estimate: 3.83 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Gottne IF: 4-0-1.
- Early goals: 2.2 combined avg at HT (1 + 1.2) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lucksta IF | Gottne IF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.6 | 2.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.3 / 3 | 2.3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lucksta IF 1–0–4 Gottne IF
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland | Gottne IF | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Lucksta IF |
| 08/06/25 Sweden 2.div Norrland | Lucksta IF | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Gottne IF |
| 04/05/25 Sweden 2.div Norrland | Gottne IF | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Lucksta IF |
| 14/09/24 Sweden 2.div Norrland | Lucksta IF | 1-4 HT 0-4 | Gottne IF |
| 13/04/24 Sweden 2.div Norrland | Gottne IF | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Lucksta IF |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucksta IF
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | Umeå FF Sweden 2.div Norrland |
1-0 | 1-5 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 14/06 | Team TG FF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
1-0 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 11/06 | Kubikenborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norrland |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | Fränsta IK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
3-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | Friska Viljor FC Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
2-3 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | IFK Östersund Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
0-1 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Gottne IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 13/05 | Friska Viljor FC Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Fränsta IK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 04/05 | Kubikenborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norrland |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
Gottne IF
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Kubikenborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norrland |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | Fränsta IK Sweden 2.div Norrland |
3-0 | 4-2 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 11/06 | Friska Viljor FC Sweden 2.div Norrland |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | IFK Östersund Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Team TG FF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Lucksta IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 14/05 | IFK Östersund Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
2-0 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | Friska Viljor FC Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
0-3 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Fränsta IK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | Kubikenborgs IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
0-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |