Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 27/06, 18:00
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners vs Marupes SC
50%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1604 · Marupes SC 1505
| FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | Draw | Marupes SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.22FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 1.89 · Marupes SC 1.33
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 52%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners (rating 1604 vs 1505).
- High estimate: 3.22 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours FK Beitar Riga/Mariners: 2-0-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | Marupes SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 0.9 | 1.8 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.3 | 2.7 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Beitar Riga/Mariners 2–0–0 Marupes SC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/25 Latvia 1. Liga | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Marupes SC |
| 12/04/25 Latvia 1. Liga | Marupes SC | 1-2 HT 0-1 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | JDFS Alberts Latvia Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Rfk/Rfs Latvia Cup |
2-0 | 11-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 02/05 | Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | RFS II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 19/04 | Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga |
2-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 11/04 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
Marupes SC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | FK Aliance Latvia Cup |
0-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | Jfc Jelgava Latvia Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | RFS II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | D |