Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 28/06, 16:00
JFK Ventspils vs Valmiera FC
63%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · JFK Ventspils 1474 · Valmiera FC 1605
| JFK Ventspils | Draw | Valmiera FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 21% | 62% |
| Market | 17% | 20% | 63% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.26JFK Ventspils 1.06 · Valmiera FC 2.2
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 51%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valmiera FC (rating 1474 vs 1605).
- High estimate: 3.26 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.6 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 15.8 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| JFK Ventspils | Valmiera FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.9 | 2.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 9.4 | 3.9 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0 | 5.1 / 0.2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
JFK Ventspils
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia Cup |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 14/06 | Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/06 | Upesciema Warriors Latvia Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | RFS II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-3 | 2-4 | 14 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/04 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga |
1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 28/03 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 3-3 | 9 | 5 | D |
Valmiera FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia Cup |
3-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 14/06 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Skanstes SK Latvia Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/05 | SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 02/05 | Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 3-1 | 15 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 12/04 | FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 8 | W |