Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 28/06, 14:00
FK Smiltene/BJSS vs Skanstes SK
51%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1427 · Skanstes SK 1478
| FK Smiltene/BJSS | Draw | Skanstes SK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 24% | 50% |
| Market | 26% | 22% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.2FK Smiltene/BJSS 1.3 · Skanstes SK 1.89
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 51%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Skanstes SK (rating 1427 vs 1478).
- High estimate: 3.2 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Skanstes SK: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Smiltene/BJSS | Skanstes SK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2.6 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1.4 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3 | 1.9 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Smiltene/BJSS 1–1–4 Skanstes SK
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/25 Latvia 1. Liga | FK Smiltene/BJSS | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Skanstes SK |
| 12/04/25 Latvia 1. Liga | Skanstes SK | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FK Smiltene/BJSS |
| 10/11/24 Latvia 1. Liga | Skanstes SK | 0-3 HT 0-1 | FK Smiltene/BJSS |
| 28/07/24 Latvia 1. Liga | FK Smiltene/BJSS | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Skanstes SK |
| 12/08/23 Latvia 1. Liga | Skanstes SK | 3-0 HT 2-0 | FK Smiltene/BJSS |
| 14/04/23 Latvia 1. Liga | FK Smiltene/BJSS | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Skanstes SK |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Smiltene/BJSS
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Valmiera FC Latvia Cup |
1-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 14/06 | Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Futbola Parks Academy Latvia Cup |
0-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 13/05 | SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 03/05 | JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga |
1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 25/04 | Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga |
0-5 | 0-8 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 12/04 | Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
Skanstes SK
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Valmiera FC Latvia Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga |
0-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | RFS II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 04/05 | Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/04 | FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/03 | Leevon PPK Latvia 1. Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |