Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 27/06, 17:00
FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FK Atyrau
36%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Kaspyi Aktau 1449 · FK Atyrau 1495
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | Draw | FK Atyrau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 36% | 34% |
| Market | 33% | 30% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.72 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.72FK Kaspyi Aktau 0.82 · FK Atyrau 0.9
Over / Under 2Under 2 · 56%
BTTSNo · 54%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Atyrau (rating 1449 vs 1495).
- Low estimate: 1.72 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- H2H favours FK Atyrau: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | FK Atyrau | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.5 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.6 | 1.6 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kaspyi Aktau 2–1–3 FK Atyrau
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 07/05/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FK Atyrau |
| 04/09/22 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 3-2 HT 0-1 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 16/04/22 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 2-1 HT 1-0 | FK Atyrau |
| 18/09/21 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 2-1 HT 0-0 | FK Atyrau |
| 02/05/21 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Atyrau | 2-1 HT 2-1 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Kaspyi Aktau
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 28/05 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 10 | L |
| 09/05 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 30/04 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
FK Atyrau
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 28/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 29/04 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |