Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 28/06, 14:00
Irtysh Pavlodar vs Kaisar Kyzylorda
42%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Irtysh Pavlodar 1433 · Kaisar Kyzylorda 1508
| Irtysh Pavlodar | Draw | Kaisar Kyzylorda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 32% | 27% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.13Irtysh Pavlodar 1.2 · Kaisar Kyzylorda 0.93
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 50%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kaisar Kyzylorda (rating 1433 vs 1508).
- H2H favours Kaisar Kyzylorda: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Irtysh Pavlodar | Kaisar Kyzylorda | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 5.2 | 1.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 5.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Irtysh Pavlodar 1–0–5 Kaisar Kyzylorda
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/20 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 19/10/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Irtysh Pavlodar | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Kaisar Kyzylorda |
| 31/05/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 08/05/19 Kazakhstan Cup | Irtysh Pavlodar | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Kaisar Kyzylorda |
| 30/03/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Irtysh Pavlodar | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Kaisar Kyzylorda |
| 21/10/18 Kazakhstan Premier League | Irtysh Pavlodar | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Kaisar Kyzylorda |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Irtysh Pavlodar
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 27/05 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 29/04 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
Kaisar Kyzylorda
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 14/06 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Cup |
1-0 | 6-4 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 06/05 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 02/05 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 29/04 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |