Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 28/06, 14:00
FK Ulytau vs Ordabasy
51%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Ulytau 1515 · Ordabasy 1608
| FK Ulytau | Draw | Ordabasy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 29% | 50% |
| Market | 22% | 26% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.26FK Ulytau 0.83 · Ordabasy 1.43
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 56%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ordabasy (rating 1515 vs 1608).
- H2H favours FK Ulytau: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Ulytau | Ordabasy | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 2 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4 | 2.5 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.4 | 4.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Ulytau 2–0–0 Ordabasy
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Ulytau | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Ordabasy |
| 24/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 0-1 HT 0-1 | FK Ulytau |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Ulytau
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 14/06 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 27/05 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 10/05 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 30/04 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Cup |
1-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Ordabasy
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 13/05 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/04 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |