Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 27/06, 15:00
Zhetysu vs FK Aktobe
43%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Zhetysu 1486 · FK Aktobe 1534
| Zhetysu | Draw | FK Aktobe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| Market | 28% | 29% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.59Zhetysu 1.14 · FK Aktobe 1.45
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 57%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Aktobe (rating 1486 vs 1534).
- H2H favours FK Aktobe: 3-1-2.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Zhetysu | FK Aktobe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3 | 2.6 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.3 | 5.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Zhetysu 2–1–3 FK Aktobe
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Zhetysu |
| 25/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Zhetysu | 2-1 HT 0-1 | FK Aktobe |
| 15/09/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Zhetysu |
| 28/04/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Zhetysu | 2-1 HT 1-0 | FK Aktobe |
| 14/04/24 Kazakhstan Cup | FK Aktobe | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Zhetysu |
| 29/10/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Aktobe | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Zhetysu |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zhetysu
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-3 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 13/06 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 28/05 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 23/05 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 8 | L |
| 13/05 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 29/04 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
FK Aktobe
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 23/05 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 13/05 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Cup |
1-1 | 4-5 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/04 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 25/04 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |