Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 28/06, 15:00
Tobol Kostanay vs FC Altai Semey
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tobol Kostanay 1477 · FC Altai Semey 1494
| Tobol Kostanay | Draw | FC Altai Semey | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 55% | 25% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.81Tobol Kostanay 1.8 · FC Altai Semey 1
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tobol Kostanay | FC Altai Semey | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.7 | 1.2 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.4 | 4.7 / 0.3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tobol Kostanay
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Cup |
0-1 | 4-6 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 29/04 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
FC Altai Semey
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 27/05 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/05 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/05 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Cup |
1-1 | 5-4 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/04 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Cup |
0-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |