Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 27/06, 13:00
Okzhetpes Kokshetau vs Kairat Almaty
49%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Okzhetpes Kokshetau 1514 · Kairat Almaty 1568
| Okzhetpes Kokshetau | Draw | Kairat Almaty | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 30% | 48% |
| Market | 24% | 26% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Profitable betsUnder 1.5 goals (1st half) · 75% · @1.42 · +6%
Expected goals2.3Okzhetpes Kokshetau 0.88 · Kairat Almaty 1.42
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kairat Almaty (rating 1514 vs 1568).
- H2H favours Kairat Almaty: 4-1-1.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Okzhetpes Kokshetau | Kairat Almaty | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.6 | 3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 5.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Okzhetpes Kokshetau 1–1–4 Kairat Almaty
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Kairat Almaty |
| 24/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kairat Almaty | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau |
| 15/07/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Kairat Almaty |
| 03/06/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kairat Almaty | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau |
| 27/09/20 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Kairat Almaty |
| 11/03/20 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kairat Almaty | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Okzhetpes Kokshetau
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 28/05 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 22/05 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/04 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Cup |
1-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
Kairat Almaty
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 17/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 28/05 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 06/05 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 02/05 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 29/04 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 7 | L |