Football · Chile Primera Division Women · 27/06, 23:00
Universidad Catolica (W) vs Universidad de Concepcion (W)
81%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica (W) 1594 · Universidad de Concepcion (W) 1454
| Universidad Catolica (W) | Draw | Universidad de Concepcion (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 84% | 12% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.61Universidad Catolica (W) 2.81 · Universidad de Concepcion (W) 0.81
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica (W) (rating 1594 vs 1454).
- High estimate: 3.61 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Universidad Catolica (W): 5-0-1.
- Early goals: 1.7 combined avg at HT (0.9 + 0.8) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad Catolica (W) | Universidad de Concepcion (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.6 | 1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 43/29/29% | 44/33/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.3 | 1.6 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 1.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica (W) 5–0–1 Universidad de Concepcion (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Chile Primera Division Women | Universidad de Concepcion (W) | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Universidad Catolica (W) |
| 17/08/25 Chile Primera Division Women | Universidad de Concepcion (W) | 1-7 HT 0-4 | Universidad Catolica (W) |
| 30/03/25 Chile Primera Division Women | Universidad Catolica (W) | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Universidad de Concepcion (W) |
| 07/07/24 Chile Primera Division Women | Universidad Catolica (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Universidad de Concepcion (W) |
| 24/03/24 Chile Primera Division Women | Universidad de Concepcion (W) | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Universidad Catolica (W) |
| 20/05/23 Chile Primera Division Women | Universidad Catolica (W) | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Universidad de Concepcion (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad Catolica (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Palestino (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 14/06 | Deportes Temuco (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
4-0 | 7-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Coquimbo Unido (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Magallanes (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Deportes Iquique (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | Deportes Recoleta (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Colo Colo (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Huachipato (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/04 | Universidad de Chile (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 22/03 | Universidad de Concepcion (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
Universidad de Concepcion (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Deportes Iquique (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 13/06 | Union Espanola (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Palestino (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Santiago Wanderers (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 18/05 | Colo Colo (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
0-4 | 0-7 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 13/05 | Huachipato (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Deportes Temuco (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Universidad de Chile (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 05/04 | Deportes Recoleta (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 27/03 | Magallanes (W) Chile Primera Division Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |