⚽ Football · Brazil Serie C · 01/07, 01:30
Botafogo PB vs Brusque
38%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Botafogo PB 1448 · Brusque 1544
| Botafogo PB | Draw | Brusque | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| Market | 35% | 30% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.53Botafogo PB 1.13 · Brusque 1.4
Most likely total2 goals
💎 ValueOver 2 goals · +6.9%The model gives this bet 6.9% more probability than its odds (1.98) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brusque (rating 1448 vs 1544).
- H2H favours Brusque: 2-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 0.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Botafogo PB | Brusque | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 6.1 | 3.3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0 | 5 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo PB 0–0–2 Brusque
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/25 Brazil Serie C | Botafogo PB | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Brusque |
| 08/07/23 Brazil Serie C | Botafogo PB | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Brusque |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Botafogo PB
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 16/06 | Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 7 | D |
| 30/05 | Maringa FC Brazil Serie C |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 26/05 | Ituano Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 19/05 | Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Maranhao Brazil Serie C |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 04/05 | Paysandu Brazil Serie C |
2-3 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 30/04 | Fluminense PI Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Floresta EC Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 23/04 | Itabaiana Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-1 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | D |
Brusque
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Floresta EC Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 02/06 | Barra FC Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 2-2 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 11/05 | Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | AD Confianca Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/04 | Maringa FC Brazil Serie C |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Paysandu Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |