⚽ Football · Brazil Serie C · 28/06, 16:00
Figueirense vs Guarani
36%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Figueirense 1497 · Guarani 1544
| Figueirense | Draw | Guarani | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 31% | 33% |
| Market | 32% | 30% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.37Figueirense 1.21 · Guarani 1.16
Most likely total2 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guarani (rating 1497 vs 1544).
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.2 + 1.1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Figueirense | Guarani | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.3 | 2.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.7 | 3.4 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.4 | 5.6 / 0.3 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Figueirense 0–5–1 Guarani
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/25 Brazil Serie C | Guarani | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Figueirense |
| 20/12/20 Brazil Serie B | Guarani | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Figueirense |
| 26/09/20 Brazil Serie B | Figueirense | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Guarani |
| 31/08/19 Brazil Serie B | Figueirense | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Guarani |
| 27/04/19 Brazil Serie B | Guarani | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Figueirense |
| 07/11/18 Brazil Serie B | Figueirense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Guarani |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Figueirense
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Ituano Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 15/06 | Floresta EC Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | Paysandu Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 11 | W |
| 24/05 | AD Confianca Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Itabaiana Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 05/05 | Barra FC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-3 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 14/04 | Maringa FC Brazil Serie C |
0-2 | 1-3 | 12 | 5 | L |
Guarani
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | AD Confianca Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 13/06 | Caxias RS Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Barra FC Brazil Serie C |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Ituano Brazil Serie C |
1-2 | 1-3 | 13 | 10 | L |
| 12/05 | Maringa FC Brazil Serie C |
3-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 02/05 | Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 28/04 | Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 19/04 | Itabaiana Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |