⚽ Football · Brazil Serie C · 27/06, 16:00
Inter de Limeira vs Maringa FC
49%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Inter de Limeira 1533 · Maringa FC 1486
| Inter de Limeira | Draw | Maringa FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Market | 46% | 28% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.67Inter de Limeira 1.67 · Maringa FC 0.99
Most likely total2 goals
💎 ValueOver 2 goals · +6.9%The model gives this bet 6.9% more probability than its odds (1.82) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Inter de Limeira (rating 1533 vs 1486).
- H2H favours Maringa FC: 3-2-1.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.5 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Inter de Limeira | Maringa FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1.7 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.3 | 2.8 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.3 | 5.4 / 0.5 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Inter de Limeira 1–2–3 Maringa FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/24 Brazil Serie D | Maringa FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Inter de Limeira |
| 24/08/24 Brazil Serie D | Inter de Limeira | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Maringa FC |
| 13/06/24 Brazil Serie D | Inter de Limeira | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Maringa FC |
| 09/06/24 Brazil Serie D | Maringa FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Inter de Limeira |
| 15/06/23 Brazil Serie D | Maringa FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Inter de Limeira |
| 10/06/23 Brazil Serie D | Inter de Limeira | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Maringa FC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Inter de Limeira
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Paysandu Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Itabaiana Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 19/05 | Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 12/05 | Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 9 | L |
| 03/05 | AD Confianca Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Barra FC Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Ituano Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
Maringa FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Caxias RS Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 16/06 | Maranhao Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 12/05 | Guarani Brazil Serie C |
0-3 | 0-5 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 04/05 | Itabaiana Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 27/04 | Ituano Brazil Serie C |
0-2 | 1-4 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 21/04 | Brusque Brazil Serie C |
1-2 | 2-3 | 14 | 6 | L |
| 14/04 | Figueirense Brazil Serie C |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |