⚽ Football · Brazil Serie C · 28/06, 00:00
Itabaiana vs Ferroviaria SP
39%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Itabaiana 1446 · Ferroviaria SP 1558
| Itabaiana | Draw | Ferroviaria SP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 34% | 43% |
| Market | 33% | 32% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.89 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals1.89Itabaiana 0.76 · Ferroviaria SP 1.14
BTTSNo · 63%
Most likely total1 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferroviaria SP (rating 1446 vs 1558).
- Low estimate: 1.89 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Itabaiana | Ferroviaria SP | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.7 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.5 | 2.7 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 5.8 / 0.6 |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Itabaiana
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | Ituano Brazil Serie C |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Figueirense Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Floresta EC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 04/05 | Maringa FC Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 30/04 | Piaui Brazil Copa Nordeste |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Paysandu Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 23/04 | Botafogo PB Brazil Copa Nordeste |
1-0 | 3-3 | 10 | 3 | D |
Ferroviaria SP
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/06 | Barra FC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Brusque Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 9 | W |
| 14/05 | CA Juventus Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 12 | L |
| 10/05 | Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 07/05 | CA Juventus Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 01/05 | Ituano Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |