⚽ Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League · 28/06, 07:00
Canberra Croatia FC vs Tuggeranong Utd
69%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Canberra Croatia FC 1627 · Tuggeranong Utd 1509
| Canberra Croatia FC | Draw | Tuggeranong Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 19% | 20% |
| Market | 75% | 14% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.3 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals4.3Canberra Croatia FC 2.73 · Tuggeranong Utd 1.57
BTTSYes · 75%
Most likely total4 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Canberra Croatia FC (rating 1627 vs 1509).
- High estimate: 4.3 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Canberra Croatia FC: 6-0-0.
- Early goals: 2.7 combined avg at HT (1.6 + 1.1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Canberra Croatia FC | Tuggeranong Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 1.5 | 2.8 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.1 | 2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.4 | 1.3 / 0.2 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Canberra Croatia FC 6–0–0 Tuggeranong Utd
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Tuggeranong Utd | 2-3 HT 0-0 | Canberra Croatia FC |
| 31/08/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Canberra Croatia FC | 7-2 HT 1-0 | Tuggeranong Utd |
| 20/07/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Tuggeranong Utd | 1-7 HT 0-3 | Canberra Croatia FC |
| 25/05/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Canberra Croatia FC | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Tuggeranong Utd |
| 21/05/25 Australia Cup Qualifying | Tuggeranong Utd | 0-6 HT 0-3 | Canberra Croatia FC |
| 11/08/24 Australia Capital Territory Premier League | Canberra Croatia FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tuggeranong Utd |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Canberra Croatia FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 17/06 | Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 19 | 6 | W |
| 10/06 | Queanbeyan City Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | Tigers FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-1 | 1-5 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/05 | Tuggeranong Utd Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 3-2 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 05/05 | Canberra White Eagles Australia Cup Qualifying |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 24/04 | Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Tuggeranong Utd
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 10/06 | Monaro Panthers Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-4 | 1-6 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 03/06 | Belconnen United Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | Canberra Juventus Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Brindabella Blues FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 13/05 | Canberra Croatia FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Canberra Olympic Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
2-4 | 6-4 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Tigers FC Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 24/04 | Canberra White Eagles Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
3-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/04 | O'Connor Knights Australia Capital Territory Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |