⚽ Football · Finland Kakkonen Group B · 26/06, 17:30
AIFK vs FC Honka
44%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AIFK 1583 · FC Honka 1583
| AIFK | Draw | FC Honka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 24% | 30% |
| Market | 24% | 21% | 56% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.37AIFK 1.87 · FC Honka 1.5
BTTSYes · 67%
Most likely total3 goals
💎 ValueAIFK or draw · @2.25Safer option: double chance at 2.25 (win or draw). The straight winner paid more but is riskier.
🔑 Match keys
- Value on draw: the model gives it +11.4% more probability than its odds (2.25) pay. The bookie has it underpriced → an edge over time.
- High estimate: 3.37 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 2 combined avg at HT (1.1 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 13 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AIFK | FC Honka | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.4 | 2.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.1 | 3.9 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.4 | 4.2 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · AIFK 0–1–0 FC Honka
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Finland Kakkonen Group B | FC Honka | 1-1 HT 0-1 | AIFK |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
AIFK
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | EPS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 04/06 | P-Iirot Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | MuSa Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-2 | 4-2 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | HJS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 18/05 | NJS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
3-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 13/05 | VPS Vaasa Finland Cup |
0-6 | 0-7 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | GrIFK Finland Kakkonen Group B |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 05/05 | Tampereen Ilves 2 Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 29/04 | MaPS Finland Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 24/04 | EBK Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
FC Honka
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | P-Iirot Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-0 | 5-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 09/06 | HJK Helsinki Finland Cup |
1-4 | 1-7 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | EBK Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/05 | NJS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 26/05 | VJS Vantaa Finland Cup |
2-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 22/05 | EPS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | GrIFK Finland Kakkonen Group B |
3-1 | 5-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 13/05 | KUPS Akatemia Finland Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 08/05 | Tampereen Ilves 2 Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | HJS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |