Football · Finland Kakkonen Group B · 27/06, 15:00
MuSa vs P-Iirot
59%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · MuSa 1442 · P-Iirot 1493
| MuSa | Draw | P-Iirot | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| Market | 20% | 21% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Profitable betsUnder 4.5 goals · 75% · @1.40 · +6%
Both teams score: No · 43% · @2.63 · +14%
Expected goals3.34MuSa 1.18 · P-Iirot 2.16
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours P-Iirot (rating 1442 vs 1493).
- High estimate: 3.34 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours MuSa: 3-1-2.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 0.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| MuSa | P-Iirot | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.7 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 2.1 | 1.9 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.2 | 4.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · MuSa 3–1–2 P-Iirot
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Finland Kakkonen Group B | P-Iirot | 4-0 HT 2-0 | MuSa |
| 17/07/25 Finland Kakkonen Group B | MuSa | 1-1 HT 0-0 | P-Iirot |
| 18/06/25 Finland Kakkonen Group B | P-Iirot | 0-3 HT 0-2 | MuSa |
| 27/08/15 Finland Kakkonen Group B | MuSa | 0-3 HT 0-2 | P-Iirot |
| 02/07/15 Finland Kakkonen Group B | P-Iirot | 1-2 HT 1-1 | MuSa |
| 14/05/15 Finland Kakkonen Group B | MuSa | 5-1 HT 2-0 | P-Iirot |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
MuSa
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06 | EBK Finland Kakkonen Group B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 05/06 | NJS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 29/05 | AIFK Finland Kakkonen Group B |
2-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Tampereen Ilves 2 Finland Kakkonen Group B |
3-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | EPS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-2 | 1-6 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | HJS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | GrIFK Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 24/04 | FC Honka Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-2 | 0-6 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | P-Iirot Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 04/10 | PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
P-Iirot
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | FC Honka Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-1 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 04/06 | AIFK Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | GrIFK Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 11 | D |
| 23/05 | NJS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Tampereen Ilves 2 Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | FC Ilves Finland Cup |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | EBK Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | EPS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 29/04 | PIF Parainen Finland Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | HJS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |