Football · Finland Kakkonen Group B · 28/06, 14:00
Tampereen Ilves 2 vs EBK
64%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tampereen Ilves 2 1528 · EBK 1478
| Tampereen Ilves 2 | Draw | EBK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| Market | 64% | 18% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.28 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.28Tampereen Ilves 2 2.79 · EBK 1.49
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 51%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampereen Ilves 2 (rating 1528 vs 1478).
- High estimate: 4.28 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 2 combined avg at HT (1.2 + 0.8) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 15.7 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tampereen Ilves 2 | EBK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.7 | 2.5 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 5 / 9.1 | 1.7 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.2 | 5.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tampereen Ilves 2 1–2–1 EBK
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Finland Kakkonen Group B | EBK | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Tampereen Ilves 2 |
| 14/09/24 Finland Kakkonen Group B | Tampereen Ilves 2 | 2-2 HT 1-0 | EBK |
| 03/07/24 Finland Kakkonen Group B | Tampereen Ilves 2 | 3-0 HT 1-0 | EBK |
| 29/04/24 Finland Kakkonen Group B | EBK | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Tampereen Ilves 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tampereen Ilves 2
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | NJS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
4-1 | 7-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/05 | HJS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | MuSa Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-3 | 4-3 | 20 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | P-Iirot Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-1 | 3-2 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 08/05 | FC Honka Finland Kakkonen Group B |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 05/05 | AIFK Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | EPS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | EBK Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 31/01 | FC Inter II Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 19/10 | TPV Finland Kakkonnen Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
EBK
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06 | MuSa Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 16 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | FC Honka Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | EPS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 26/05 | FC Inter Finland Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | GrIFK Finland Kakkonen Group B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 11 | W |
| 17/05 | HJS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | Tampere Utd Finland Cup |
2-1 | 6-5 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | P-Iirot Finland Kakkonen Group B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 05/05 | FC POHU/KY United Finland Cup |
1-2 | 9-8 | 18 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | NJS Finland Kakkonen Group B |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |