Football · Finland Kakkonen Group B · 02/07, 17:30

EBK vs AIFK

Expected goals: 3.38 (EBK 1.06 · AIFK 2.32). The model gives 16% home, 19% draw, 65% away. Under 3.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-2.

65%2

16% 19% 65%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EBK 1430 · AIFK 1560

	EBK	Draw	AIFK
Our model	15%	20%	65%
Market	16%	18%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.38EBK 1.06 · AIFK 2.32

Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 53%

BTTSYes · 56%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AIFK (rating 1430 vs 1560).
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EBK	AIFK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.3	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 6.6	3.1 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.50

X5.00

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.85

2 (-1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 5.50 → 5.50 – 0%

X 5.00 → 5.00 – 0%

2 1.36 → 1.36 – 0%

Over/Under 3.5

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · EBK 0–0–1 AIFK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Finland Kakkonen Group B	AIFK	3-0 HT 1-0	EBK

Standings · Finland Kakkonen Group B · Kakkonen 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Honka	10	8	2	0	30	7	26
2	AIFK	10	7	2	1	22	9	23
3	HJS	10	5	3	2	18	12	18
4	Tampereen Ilves 2	9	4	4	1	23	15	16
5	P-Iirot	10	4	2	4	18	16	14
6	GrIFK	9	3	3	3	11	14	12
7	EPS	10	3	2	5	18	16	11
8	EBK	10	2	2	6	13	21	8
9	MuSa	10	1	3	6	11	29	6
10	NJS	10	0	1	9	6	31	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EBK	AIFK
Tampereen Ilves 2	2-3 L	2-1 W
MuSa	0-2 L	4-2 W
FC Honka	1-4 L	0-1 L
EPS	2-2 D	2-1 W
GrIFK	1-0 W	3-1 W
HJS	2-3 L	1-1 D
P-Iirot	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AIFK (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

EBK

DLDLWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Tampereen Ilves 2 Finland Kakkonen Group B	1-0	2-3	7	3	L
12/06	MuSa Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-2	0-2	16	2	L
06/06	FC Honka Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-1	1-4	2	7	L
29/05	EPS Finland Kakkonen Group B	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
26/05	FC Inter Finland Cup	1-1	1-2	0	5	L
24/05	GrIFK Finland Kakkonen Group B	1-0	1-0	6	11	W
17/05	HJS Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-2	2-3	4	5	L
13/05	Tampere Utd Finland Cup	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
09/05	P-Iirot Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
05/05	FC POHU/KY United Finland Cup	1-2	4-4	18	4	D

AIFK

WWWLWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	FC Honka Finland Kakkonen Group B	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
13/06	EPS Finland Kakkonen Group B	1-1	2-1	4	7	W
04/06	P-Iirot Finland Kakkonen Group B	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
29/05	MuSa Finland Kakkonen Group B	1-2	4-2	12	2	W
23/05	HJS Finland Kakkonen Group B	1-1	1-1	8	3	D
18/05	NJS Finland Kakkonen Group B	3-0	4-1	11	6	W
13/05	VPS Vaasa Finland Cup	0-6	0-7	1	0	L
09/05	GrIFK Finland Kakkonen Group B	2-1	3-1	4	6	W
05/05	Tampereen Ilves 2 Finland Kakkonen Group B	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
29/04	MaPS Finland Cup	0-0	1-0	3	6	W