Football · Finland Kakkonen Group A · 27/06, 16:00
Puiu vs HPS
40%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Puiu 1458 · HPS 1513
| Puiu | Draw | HPS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 24% | 40% |
| Market | 36% | 24% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.45Puiu 1.67 · HPS 1.77
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 52%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HPS (rating 1458 vs 1513).
- High estimate: 3.45 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.4 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 11 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Puiu | HPS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.5 | 1.9 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.6 | 2.1 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 5.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Puiu 1–0–1 HPS
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A | HPS | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Puiu |
| 03/08/21 Finland Kolmonen | HPS | 6-0 HT 0-0 | Puiu |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Puiu
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 08/06 | Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 29/05 | HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 22/05 | Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-6 | 0-8 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 13/05 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-3 | 1-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 29/04 | IF Gnistan M35 Finland Cup |
1-0 | 5-3 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
HPS
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06 | Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | PPJ Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 16/05 | Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A |
4-1 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 02/05 | PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 28/04 | IFK Mariehamn Finland Cup |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/04 | Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A |
2-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |