Football · Finland Kakkonen Group A · 27/06, 16:00
PEPO vs PPJ
47%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · PEPO 1540 · PPJ 1525
| PEPO | Draw | PPJ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 48% | 24% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Profitable betsUnder 2.5 goals · 52% · @2.63 · +36%
Both teams score: No · 47% · @2.63 · +23%
High-value bet — premium onlyGo premium to see it.Expected goals2.61PEPO 1.52 · PPJ 1.08
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours PPJ: 2-3-0.
- Early goals: 1.7 combined avg at HT (0.5 + 1.2) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 13.8 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| PEPO | PPJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 7.6 | 3.6 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · PEPO 0–3–2 PPJ
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 Finland Kakkonen Group A | PPJ | 1-1 HT 1-1 | PEPO |
| 27/07/24 Finland Kakkonen Group A | PPJ | 1-1 HT 0-0 | PEPO |
| 25/05/24 Finland Kakkonen Group A | PEPO | 1-2 HT 1-0 | PPJ |
| 19/08/23 Finland Kakkonen Group A | PPJ | 4-4 HT 1-3 | PEPO |
| 27/05/23 Finland Kakkonen Group A | PEPO | 0-3 HT 0-3 | PPJ |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
PEPO
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 04/06 | Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A |
2-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 12/05 | SJK Finland Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 28/04 | JJK Finland Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A |
2-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
PPJ
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Atlantis Finland Kakkonen Group A |
3-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | MyPa Finland Kakkonen Group A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 31/05 | HPS Finland Kakkonen Group A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | Reipas Finland Kakkonen Group A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Union Plaani Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | HIFK 2 Finland Kakkonen Group A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Puiu Finland Kakkonen Group A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 29/04 | HJS Finland Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Kiffen Finland Kakkonen Group A |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/04 | PEPO Finland Kakkonen Group A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |