⚽ Football · USA NPSL · 25/06, 01:00
Ambassadors FC Ohio vs Erie Commodores
45%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ambassadors FC Ohio 1551 · Erie Commodores 1596
| Ambassadors FC Ohio | Draw | Erie Commodores | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 23% | 37% |
| Market | 26% | 22% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.25Ambassadors FC Ohio 1.66 · Erie Commodores 1.59
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 52%
BTTSYes · 65%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValueAmbassadors FC Ohio +6.3%The model gives this bet 6.3% more probability than its odds (3.50) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Erie Commodores (rating 1551 vs 1596).
- High estimate: 3.25 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 2 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ambassadors FC Ohio | Erie Commodores | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 3.1 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.3 | – / – |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | – / – |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Ambassadors FC Ohio 1–0–1 Erie Commodores
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/25 USA NPSL | Ambassadors FC Ohio | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Erie Commodores |
| 22/06/25 USA NPSL | Erie Commodores | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Ambassadors FC Ohio |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Ambassadors FC Ohio
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Buffalo Stallions USA NPSL |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/06 | SC Cleveland USA NPSL |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Rochester NY FC Academy USA NPSL |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/06 | SC Cleveland USA NPSL |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Flower City Union USA NPSL |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Niagara 1812 USA NPSL |
2-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Rochester NY FC Academy USA NPSL |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Flower City Union USA NPSL |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 12/07 | Flower City Union USA NPSL |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/07 | Rochester NY FC Academy USA NPSL |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Erie Commodores
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Rochester NY FC Academy USA NPSL |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | Flower City Union USA NPSL |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/06 | SC Cleveland USA NPSL |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 07/06 | Buffalo Stallions USA NPSL |
2-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Buffalo Stallions USA NPSL |
1-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 29/05 | Rochester NY FC Academy USA NPSL |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Flower City Union USA NPSL |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/05 | Niagara 1812 USA NPSL |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Niagara 1812 USA NPSL |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/07 | Flower City Union USA NPSL |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |