⚽ Football · Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women · 28/06, 08:00
Adamstown Rosebud (W) vs Lake Macquarie (W)
44%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adamstown Rosebud (W) 1461 · Lake Macquarie (W) 1481
| Adamstown Rosebud (W) | Draw | Lake Macquarie (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| Market | 26% | 21% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💰 bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.67Adamstown Rosebud (W) 1.95 · Lake Macquarie (W) 1.72
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 50%
BTTSYes · 60%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
🔑 Match keys
- High estimate: 3.67 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Lake Macquarie (W): 4-0-0.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Adamstown Rosebud (W) | Lake Macquarie (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.4 | 1.2 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.4 | 0.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.1 | 2.9 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.4 / 0.1 | 0.6 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Adamstown Rosebud (W) 0–0–4 Lake Macquarie (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women | Lake Macquarie (W) | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Adamstown Rosebud (W) |
| 27/02/26 Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women | Adamstown Rosebud (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Lake Macquarie (W) |
| 17/08/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women | Lake Macquarie (W) | 5-1 HT 1-1 | Adamstown Rosebud (W) |
| 13/06/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women | Adamstown Rosebud (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Lake Macquarie (W) |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Adamstown Rosebud (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Broadmeadow Magic (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Maitland FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | Newcastle Olympic FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
0-2 | 4-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Charlestown Azzurri (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 08/05 | New Lambton FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Lake Macquarie (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Broadmeadow Magic (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
4-2 | 5-3 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Maitland FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 29/03 | Newcastle Olympic FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/03 | Charlestown Azzurri (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
Lake Macquarie (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Newcastle Olympic FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 10/06 | Charlestown Azzurri (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 02/06 | New Lambton FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
0-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 17/05 | Maitland FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 10/05 | Broadmeadow Magic (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
1-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Adamstown Rosebud (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 19/04 | Newcastle Olympic FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 28/03 | New Lambton FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 22/03 | Charlestown Azzurri (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 15/03 | Maitland FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | L |