Football · Australia Tasmania Super League Women · 28/06, 06:00
South Hobart (W) vs Kingborough Lions (W)
62%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · South Hobart (W) 1517 · Kingborough Lions (W) 1502
| South Hobart (W) | Draw | Kingborough Lions (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 18% | 19% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.29 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.29South Hobart (W) 2.76 · Kingborough Lions (W) 1.53
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 51%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- High estimate: 4.29 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours South Hobart (W): 4-1-1.
- Early goals: 2.6 combined avg at HT (1.6 + 1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg → Over corners.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| South Hobart (W) | Kingborough Lions (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 1.9 | 2.1 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.9 | 3 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.7 / 0 | 1.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · South Hobart (W) 4–1–1 Kingborough Lions (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Australia Tasmania Super League Women | Kingborough Lions (W) | 1-4 HT 1-2 | South Hobart (W) |
| 19/08/25 Australia Tasmania Super League Women | Kingborough Lions (W) | 3-3 HT 1-2 | South Hobart (W) |
| 25/05/25 Australia Tasmania Super League Women | Kingborough Lions (W) | 2-3 HT 0-2 | South Hobart (W) |
| 15/03/25 Australia Tasmania Super League Women | South Hobart (W) | 6-0 HT 4-0 | Kingborough Lions (W) |
| 27/07/24 Australia Tasmania Super League Women | Kingborough Lions (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | South Hobart (W) |
| 26/05/24 Australia Tasmania Super League Women | South Hobart (W) | 1-4 HT 1-4 | Kingborough Lions (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
South Hobart (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Glenorchy Knights (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 14/06 | Devonport Strikers (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | Taroona (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | Launceston United (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Riverside Olympic (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 03/05 | Launceston City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Kingborough Lions (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
2-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | Glenorchy Knights (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 28/03 | Devonport Strikers (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
1-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 21/03 | Taroona (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
4-0 | 5-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
Kingborough Lions (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Taroona (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Launceston United (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
3-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Launceston City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 09/05 | Devonport Strikers (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Glenorchy Knights (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
1-1 | 3-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | South Hobart (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
1-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 11/04 | Taroona (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 29/03 | Riverside Olympic (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 22/03 | Launceston United (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
2-1 | 4-3 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 14/03 | Launceston City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |