Football · Australia Tasmania Super League Women · 27/06, 08:45
Taroona (W) vs Glenorchy Knights (W)
73%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Taroona (W) 1462 · Glenorchy Knights (W) 1557
| Taroona (W) | Draw | Glenorchy Knights (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 15% | 73% |
| Market | 11% | 16% | 73% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.18 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.18Taroona (W) 1.18 · Glenorchy Knights (W) 3
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 51%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Glenorchy Knights (W) (rating 1462 vs 1557).
- High estimate: 4.18 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Glenorchy Knights (W): 5-1-0.
- Early goals: 2.4 combined avg at HT (0.9 + 1.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Taroona (W) | Glenorchy Knights (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.7 | 2.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.6 | 1.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 1.9 | 3.9 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.6 / 0 | 0.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Taroona (W) 0–1–5 Glenorchy Knights (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Australia Tasmania Super League Women | Glenorchy Knights (W) | 6-1 HT 6-1 | Taroona (W) |
| 31/08/25 Australia Tasmania Super League Women | Taroona (W) | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Glenorchy Knights (W) |
| 11/07/25 Australia Tasmania Super League Women | Glenorchy Knights (W) | 4-1 HT 3-0 | Taroona (W) |
| 02/05/25 Australia Tasmania Super League Women | Glenorchy Knights (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Taroona (W) |
| 01/09/24 Australia Tasmania Super League Women | Taroona (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Glenorchy Knights (W) |
| 20/07/24 Australia Tasmania Super League Women | Glenorchy Knights (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Taroona (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Taroona (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Kingborough Lions (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 13/06 | Launceston City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 29/05 | South Hobart (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
2-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Devonport Strikers (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Launceston United (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Riverside Olympic (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
4-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Glenorchy Knights (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
1-6 | 1-6 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 11/04 | Kingborough Lions (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 28/03 | Launceston City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 21/03 | South Hobart (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-4 | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | L |
Glenorchy Knights (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | South Hobart (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | D |
| 13/06 | Launceston United (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Devonport Strikers (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Riverside Olympic (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
3-1 | 6-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Launceston City (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Kingborough Lions (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
1-1 | 5-3 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Taroona (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
6-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | South Hobart (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 28/03 | Launceston United (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 21/03 | Devonport Strikers (W) Australia Tasmania Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |