⚽ Football · South Korea K3 League · 28/06, 07:00
Gyeongju HNP vs Pocheon Citizen FC
41%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gyeongju HNP 1485 · Pocheon Citizen FC 1589
| Gyeongju HNP | Draw | Pocheon Citizen FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.67Gyeongju HNP 1.17 · Pocheon Citizen FC 1.5
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 59%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total2 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pocheon Citizen FC (rating 1485 vs 1589).
- H2H favours Pocheon Citizen FC: 3-1-2.
- Early goals: 1.4 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gyeongju HNP | Pocheon Citizen FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.7 | 2.1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.4 | 2.2 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.4 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Gyeongju HNP 2–1–3 Pocheon Citizen FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 South Korea K3/K4 Championship | Gyeongju HNP | 2-5 HT 1-2 | Pocheon Citizen FC |
| 22/03/26 South Korea K3 League | Pocheon Citizen FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Gyeongju HNP |
| 14/09/25 South Korea K3 League | Pocheon Citizen FC | 3-3 HT 1-3 | Gyeongju HNP |
| 17/05/25 South Korea K3 League | Gyeongju HNP | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Pocheon Citizen FC |
| 14/07/24 South Korea K3 League | Gyeongju HNP | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Pocheon Citizen FC |
| 31/03/24 South Korea K3 League | Pocheon Citizen FC | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Gyeongju HNP |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Gyeongju HNP
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
1-2 | 2-5 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 27/05 | Jinju Citizen FC South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Yeoju South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | Mokpo City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
Pocheon Citizen FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
2-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Changwon City South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Changwon City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 06/05 | Gangneung City South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |