⚽ Football · South Korea K3 League · 27/06, 09:00
Changwon City vs Yeoju
45%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Changwon City 1530 · Yeoju 1497
| Changwon City | Draw | Yeoju | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 32% | 19% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.95 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💰 bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals1.95Changwon City 1.27 · Yeoju 0.68
Over / Under 2Under 2 · 52%
BTTSNo · 63%
Most likely total1 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Low estimate: 1.95 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- H2H favours Changwon City: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Changwon City | Yeoju | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.1 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 1.5 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Changwon City 3–1–1 Yeoju
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 South Korea K3 League | Changwon City | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Yeoju |
| 26/10/25 South Korea K3 League | Changwon City | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Yeoju |
| 14/06/25 South Korea K3 League | Yeoju | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Changwon City |
| 25/08/24 South Korea K3 League | Changwon City | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Yeoju |
| 28/04/24 South Korea K3 League | Yeoju | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Changwon City |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Changwon City
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Mokpo City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 06/06 | Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 27/05 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 9 | W |
Yeoju
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 14/06 | Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Sejong SA South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 09/05 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 05/05 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea League Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 02/05 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |