Football · China Super League · 05/07, 13:00
Qingdao Hainiu vs Chengdu Rongcheng
Expected goals: 2.7 (Qingdao Hainiu 0.98 · Chengdu Rongcheng 1.71). The model gives 21% home, 25% draw, 54% away. Over 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
54%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Qingdao Hainiu 1511 · Chengdu Rongcheng 1591
| Qingdao Hainiu | Draw | Chengdu Rongcheng | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 26% | 53% |
| Market | 21% | 25% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.7Qingdao Hainiu 0.98 · Chengdu Rongcheng 1.71
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chengdu Rongcheng (rating 1511 vs 1591).
- H2H favours Chengdu Rongcheng: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Qingdao Hainiu | Chengdu Rongcheng | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 2.1 | 2.1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.8 | 3.5 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 5.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Qingdao Hainiu 0–1–5 Chengdu Rongcheng
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 China Super League | Chengdu Rongcheng | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Qingdao Hainiu |
| 16/08/25 China Super League | Chengdu Rongcheng | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Qingdao Hainiu |
| 23/07/25 China FA Cup | Qingdao Hainiu | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Chengdu Rongcheng |
| 12/04/25 China Super League | Qingdao Hainiu | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Chengdu Rongcheng |
| 26/06/24 China Super League | Qingdao Hainiu | 1-5 HT 1-2 | Chengdu Rongcheng |
| 02/03/24 China Super League | Chengdu Rongcheng | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Qingdao Hainiu |
Standings · China Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 15 | 40 |
| 2 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 27 |
| 3 | Dalian Young Boy | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 22 |
| 4 | Shandong Taishan | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 26 | 21 |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 21 |
| 6 | Qingdao West Coast | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 24 | 21 |
| 7 | Beijing Guoan | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 18 |
| 8 | Zhejiang | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 17 |
| 9 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 17 |
| 10 | Liaoning Ironman | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 28 | 17 |
| 11 | Shanghai Shenhua | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 25 | 16 |
| 12 | Shanghai Port | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 22 | 15 |
| 13 | Henan | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 14 | Qingdao Hainiu | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 27 | 13 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | 8 |
| 16 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Qingdao Hainiu | Chengdu Rongcheng |
|---|---|---|
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 2-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Liaoning Ironman | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Dalian Young Boy | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Shanghai Port | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Shandong Taishan | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Qingdao Hainiu (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Qingdao Hainiu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
4-2 | 4-2 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 20/06 | Wuxi Wugo China FA Cup |
2-1 | 7-5 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 20/05 | Liaoning Ironman China Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Beijing Guoan China Super League |
0-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 06/05 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Shanghai Port China Super League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Chengdu Rongcheng
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 20/06 | Shanghai Zetian China FA Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 19/05 | Shanghai Port China Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 11 | L |
| 15/05 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Henan China Super League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Liaoning Ironman China Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Zhejiang China Super League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 6 | W |