Football · USA USL W-League Women · 28/06, 21:00
Long Island Rough Riders (W) vs Paisley Athletic (W)
70%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Long Island Rough Riders (W) 1596 · Paisley Athletic (W) 1503
| Long Island Rough Riders (W) | Draw | Paisley Athletic (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Market | 70% | 17% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.06Long Island Rough Riders (W) 2.84 · Paisley Athletic (W) 1.22
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 55%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Long Island Rough Riders (W) (rating 1596 vs 1503).
- High estimate: 4.06 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Long Island Rough Riders (W): 4-1-1.
- Early goals: 2 combined avg at HT (1 + 1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 11 combined avg → Over corners.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Long Island Rough Riders (W) | Paisley Athletic (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.7 / 1.6 | 3.1 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.5 | 1 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/0/50% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 8 | 1 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0 | 1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Long Island Rough Riders (W) 4–1–1 Paisley Athletic (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/26 USA USL W-League Women | Paisley Athletic (W) | 3-4 HT 2-0 | Long Island Rough Riders (W) |
| 29/05/25 USA USL W-League Women | Paisley Athletic (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Long Island Rough Riders (W) |
| 20/06/24 USA USL W-League Women | Long Island Rough Riders (W) | 7-0 HT 4-0 | Paisley Athletic (W) |
| 11/06/24 USA USL W-League Women | Paisley Athletic (W) | 4-4 HT 2-2 | Long Island Rough Riders (W) |
| 29/06/23 USA USL W-League Women | Long Island Rough Riders (W) | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Paisley Athletic (W) |
| 01/06/23 USA USL W-League Women | Paisley Athletic (W) | 1-3 | Long Island Rough Riders (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Long Island Rough Riders (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Cedar Stars (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/06 | Paisley Athletic (W) USA USL W-League Women |
0-2 | 4-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | New Jersey Copa (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | Manhattan SC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 8-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/06 | Morris Elite SC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 05/06 | Cedar Stars (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | New Jersey Copa (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Morris Elite SC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 3-6 | – | – | L |
| 21/05 | Manhattan SC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Annapolis Blues (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Paisley Athletic (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Cedar Stars (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 23/06 | Long Island Rough Riders (W) USA USL W-League Women |
2-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | New Jersey Copa (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/06 | Morris Elite SC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 13/06 | Manhattan SC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 8-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 09/06 | Cedar Stars (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 07/06 | New Jersey Copa (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/06 | Morris Elite SC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Manhattan SC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/06 | Hudson Valley Crusaders (W) USA USL W-League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |