Football · USA USL W-League Women · 29/06, 00:00
RKC Third Coast (W) vs Minnesota Aurora FC (W)
83%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · RKC Third Coast (W) 1452 · Minnesota Aurora FC (W) 1609
| RKC Third Coast (W) | Draw | Minnesota Aurora FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 5% | 15% | 80% |
| Market | 5% | 9% | 86% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3RKC Third Coast (W) 0.5 · Minnesota Aurora FC (W) 2.5
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 57%
BTTSNo · 54%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Minnesota Aurora FC (W) usually leads at HT (67%) while RKC Third Coast (W) trails (50%): look at away at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Minnesota Aurora FC (W) (rating 1452 vs 1609).
- H2H favours Minnesota Aurora FC (W): 6-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.3 + 1) → Over 0.5 HT.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| RKC Third Coast (W) | Minnesota Aurora FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.6 | 2.6 / 0.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 67/0/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · RKC Third Coast (W) 0–0–6 Minnesota Aurora FC (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/26 USA USL W-League Women | Minnesota Aurora FC (W) | 1-0 | RKC Third Coast (W) |
| 08/06/25 USA USL W-League Women | Minnesota Aurora FC (W) | 3-0 | RKC Third Coast (W) |
| 26/05/25 USA USL W-League Women | RKC Third Coast (W) | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Minnesota Aurora FC (W) |
| 30/06/24 USA USL W-League Women | RKC Third Coast (W) | 0-14 | Minnesota Aurora FC (W) |
| 31/05/24 USA USL W-League Women | Minnesota Aurora FC (W) | 7-0 | RKC Third Coast (W) |
| 22/06/23 USA USL W-League Women | RKC Third Coast (W) | 1-8 | Minnesota Aurora FC (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
RKC Third Coast (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Rally Madison FC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Rochester FC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/06 | River Light SC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 13/06 | Sioux Falls City FC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 11/06 | Rochester FC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 09/06 | Edgewater Castle (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 06/06 | Minnesota Aurora FC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Rockford Raptors (W) USA USL W-League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 28/05 | Rally Madison FC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Edgewater Castle (W) USA USL W-League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
Minnesota Aurora FC (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | River Light SC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/06 | Sioux Falls City FC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Edgewater Castle (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/06 | Sioux Falls City FC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/06 | RKC Third Coast (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | River Light SC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | Rockford Raptors (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Rally Madison FC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Rochester FC (W) USA USL W-League Women |
– | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/07 | Utah United (W) USA USL W-League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |