Football · Japan L1 League Women · 28/06, 06:00
Loveledge Nagoya (W) vs Vonds Ichihara (W)
82%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Loveledge Nagoya (W) 1621 · Vonds Ichihara (W) 1365
| Loveledge Nagoya (W) | Draw | Vonds Ichihara (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 85% | 10% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.65Loveledge Nagoya (W) 2.82 · Vonds Ichihara (W) 0.82
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 56%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Loveledge Nagoya (W) usually leads at HT (70%) while Vonds Ichihara (W) trails (60%): look at home at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Loveledge Nagoya (W) (rating 1621 vs 1365).
- High estimate: 3.65 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.5 combined avg at HT (1.2 + 0.3) → Over 0.5 HT.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Loveledge Nagoya (W) | Vonds Ichihara (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.7 | 1.9 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.8 / 0 | 0.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Loveledge Nagoya (W) 1–0–0 Vonds Ichihara (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Japan L1 League Women | Vonds Ichihara (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Loveledge Nagoya (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Loveledge Nagoya (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Ehime FC (W) Japan L1 League Women |
1-0 | 6-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Iga FC Kunoichi (W) Japan L1 League Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 07/06 | Viamaterras Miyazaki (W) Japan L1 League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) Japan L1 League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Shizuoka SSU Asregina (W) Japan L1 League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | Nittaidai FC (W) Japan L1 League Women |
3-0 | 8-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Orca Kamogawa FC (W) Japan L1 League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 26/04 | AS Harima Albion (W) Japan L1 League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Setagaya Sfida (W) Japan L1 League Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Yokohama FC Seagulls (W) Japan L1 League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
Vonds Ichihara (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Viamaterras Miyazaki (W) Japan L1 League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 13/06 | Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) Japan L1 League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | AS Harima Albion (W) Japan L1 League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Shizuoka SSU Asregina (W) Japan L1 League Women |
1-4 | 1-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Iga FC Kunoichi (W) Japan L1 League Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | Yokohama FC Seagulls (W) Japan L1 League Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Setagaya Sfida (W) Japan L1 League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Orca Kamogawa FC (W) Japan L1 League Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 19/04 | Ehime FC (W) Japan L1 League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 11/04 | Nittaidai FC (W) Japan L1 League Women |
0-0 | 1-4 | 11 | 0 | L |