⚽ Football · Australia Tasmania Championship · 26/06, 12:15
Olympia FC Warriors vs University of Tasmania
66%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Olympia FC Warriors 1538 · University of Tasmania 1435
| Olympia FC Warriors | Draw | University of Tasmania | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 19% | 22% |
| Market | 71% | 14% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals4.5Olympia FC Warriors 2.78 · University of Tasmania 1.72
BTTSYes · 78%
Most likely total4 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olympia FC Warriors (rating 1538 vs 1435).
- High estimate: 4.5 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Olympia FC Warriors: 5-1-0.
- Early goals: 1.8 combined avg at HT (1.2 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Olympia FC Warriors | University of Tasmania | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 2 | 1.7 / 4.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1 | 0.6 / 2.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 3.8 | 1.6 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 2.7 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Olympia FC Warriors 5–1–0 University of Tasmania
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia Tasmania Championship | University of Tasmania | 3-5 HT 0-4 | Olympia FC Warriors |
| 20/06/25 Australia Tasmania Championship | Olympia FC Warriors | 3-2 HT 1-1 | University of Tasmania |
| 22/03/25 Australia Tasmania Championship | University of Tasmania | 2-2 | Olympia FC Warriors |
| 28/06/24 Australia Tasmania Championship | Olympia FC Warriors | 2-1 HT 1-1 | University of Tasmania |
| 12/08/23 Australia Tasmania Championship | Olympia FC Warriors | 2-1 HT 2-1 | University of Tasmania |
| 06/05/23 Australia Tasmania Championship | University of Tasmania | 3-5 HT 3-4 | Olympia FC Warriors |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Olympia FC Warriors
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | South Hobart FC 2 Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | Hobart City FC Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | Clarence Zebras Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Hobart United Australia Tasmania Championship |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/05 | Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 17/04 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 10/04 | New Town Eagles Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 28/03 | University of Tasmania Australia Tasmania Championship |
4-0 | 5-3 | – | – | W |
| 22/03 | South Hobart FC 2 Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-3 | 1-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
University of Tasmania
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Clarence Zebras Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Hobart United Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | New Town Eagles Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-6 | 0-10 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Glenorchy Knights Reserves Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | South Hobart FC 2 Australia Tasmania Championship |
1-3 | 3-6 | – | – | L |
| 28/03 | Olympia FC Warriors Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-4 | 3-5 | – | – | L |
| 14/03 | Hobart United Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship |
0-5 | 0-6 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Taroona Australia Tasmania Championship |
2-5 | 2-9 | 4 | 1 | L |