⚽ Football · Australia Tasmania Premier League · 27/06, 06:30
Riverside Olympic vs Ulverstone
69%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Riverside Olympic 1511 · Ulverstone 1382
| Riverside Olympic | Draw | Ulverstone | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| Market | 74% | 14% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.68 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.68Riverside Olympic 2.45 · Ulverstone 1.23
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 55%
BTTSYes · 65%
Likely score2-1
💎 ValueUnder 4 goals · +5.9%The model gives this bet 5.9% more probability than its odds (1.95) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Riverside Olympic usually leads at HT (60%) while Ulverstone trails (70%): look at home at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riverside Olympic (rating 1511 vs 1382).
- High estimate: 3.68 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (1 + 0.2) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Riverside Olympic | Ulverstone | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 0/30/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.8 | 1.4 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 3.1 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Riverside Olympic 1–0–0 Ulverstone
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Australia Tasmania Premier League | Ulverstone | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Riverside Olympic |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Riverside Olympic
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Kingborough Lions Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 13 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 29/03 | Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 20/03 | Launceston City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 14/03 | Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
Ulverstone
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/06 | Launceston City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 10 | L |
| 10/05 | Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Kingborough Lions Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 29/03 | Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 22/03 | Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |