Football · Canada Premier League · 05/07, 19:00
Supra du Quebec vs Forge FC
Expected goals: 2.38 (Supra du Quebec 0.84 · Forge FC 1.54). The model gives 20% home, 27% draw, 53% away. Under 2.5 goals (54%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 1-1.
53%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Supra du Quebec 1498 · Forge FC 1600
| Supra du Quebec | Draw | Forge FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 28% | 52% |
| Market | 21% | 26% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.38Supra du Quebec 0.84 · Forge FC 1.54
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 54%
BTTSYes · 50%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forge FC (rating 1498 vs 1600).
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Supra du Quebec | Forge FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 6.1 | 2.7 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Supra du Quebec 0–0–1 Forge FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 Canada Premier League | Forge FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Supra du Quebec |
Standings · Canada Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forge FC | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 25 |
| 2 | Cavalry FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | Atletico Ottawa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 14 |
| 4 | HFX Wanderers | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| 5 | Inter Toronto | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 12 |
| 6 | Supra du Quebec | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 7 | Vancouver FC | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| 8 | Pacific FC (CA) | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Supra du Quebec | Forge FC |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Ottawa | 3-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Pacific FC (CA) | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Inter Toronto | 3-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Vancouver FC | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Cavalry FC | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| HFX Wanderers | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Forge FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Supra du Quebec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
3-1 | 3-5 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 07/06 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Woodbridge Strikers Canada Championships |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 25/04 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
Forge FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | HFX Wanderers Canada Championships |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 13/04 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |