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Football · Canada Premier League · 01/07, 19:00

Forge FC vs Vancouver FC

Expected goals: 2.16 (Forge FC 1.62 · Vancouver FC 0.54). The model gives 64% home, 24% draw, 12% away. Under 2.5 goals (55%) and not both to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-0.

64%1
64% 24% 12%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forge FC 1602 · Vancouver FC 1484
Forge FCDrawVancouver FC
Our model63%26%11%
Market65%22%13%
Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis
Expected goals2.16Forge FC 1.62 · Vancouver FC 0.54
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 55%
BTTSNo · 54%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forge FC (rating 1602 vs 1484).
  • H2H favours Forge FC: 5-1-0.
  • High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Forge FCVancouver FC
Goals for / against (FT)1.7 / 0.41.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 00.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/70/0%20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)2.7 / 4.33.3 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.4 / 0.14 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Forge FC 5–1–0 Vancouver FC

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DateHomeScoreAway
13/04/26
Canada Premier League
Vancouver FC0-1
HT 0-0
Forge FC
04/10/25
Canada Premier League
Forge FC1-1
HT 1-0
Vancouver FC
23/08/25
Canada Premier League
Vancouver FC0-1
HT 0-1
Forge FC
05/07/25
Canada Premier League
Forge FC2-1
HT 1-0
Vancouver FC
15/06/25
Canada Premier League
Vancouver FC0-2
HT 0-0
Forge FC
22/09/24
Canada Premier League
Vancouver FC1-3
HT 0-1
Forge FC

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Forge FC 10811 15425
2 Cavalry FC 10721 19523
3 Atletico Ottawa 10424 151814
4 HFX Wanderers 11335 141612
5 Inter Toronto 9333 131712
6 Supra du Quebec 9324 131411
7 Vancouver FC 10325 91111
8 Pacific FC (CA) 11038 12253

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentForge FCVancouver FC
HFX Wanderers 1-0 W 0-1 L
Inter Toronto 4-1 W 0-1 L
Cavalry FC 1-0 W 0-2 L
Atletico Ottawa 1-2 L 2-1 W
Supra du Quebec 1-0 W 1-1 D
Pacific FC (CA) 1-0 W 2-1 W
Record vs common 5 W 0 D 1 L 2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Forge FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Forge FC

WDWWWWLWWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
11/06 HFX Wanderers
Canada Premier League
 0-0 1-0 45 W
07/06 Inter Toronto
Canada Premier League
 2-0 4-1 43 W
31/05 Cavalry FC
Canada Premier League
 0-0 1-0 34 W
24/05 Atletico Ottawa
Canada Premier League
 0-0 1-2 23 L
13/05 Supra du Quebec
Canada Premier League
 0-0 1-0 62 W
09/05 HFX Wanderers
Canada Championships
 2-0 4-0 82 W
02/05 HFX Wanderers
Canada Premier League
 1-0 3-1 34 W
27/04 Pacific FC (CA)
Canada Premier League
 0-0 1-0 –– W
18/04 Cavalry FC
Canada Premier League
 0-0 0-0 45 D
13/04 Vancouver FC
Canada Premier League
 0-0 1-0 54 W

Vancouver FC

LLDWWLDLWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
15/06 Pacific FC (CA)
Canada Premier League
 0-1 2-1 102 W
06/06 Atletico Ottawa
Canada Premier League
 2-0 2-1 64 W
30/05 HFX Wanderers
Canada Premier League
 0-0 0-1 –– L
24/05 Supra du Quebec
Canada Premier League
 0-0 1-1 94 D
18/05 Cavalry FC
Canada Premier League
 0-0 0-2 66 L
11/05 Langley United Sa
Canada Championships
 0-0 2-0 75 W
04/05 Pacific FC (CA)
Canada Premier League
 1-0 3-1 53 W
26/04 Atletico Ottawa
Canada Premier League
 0-0 1-1 83 D
19/04 Inter Toronto
Canada Premier League
 0-1 0-1 105 L
13/04 Forge FC
Canada Premier League
 0-0 0-1 64 L