⚽ Football · Canada Premier League · 01/07, 19:00
Forge FC vs Vancouver FC
65%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Forge FC 1602 · Vancouver FC 1484
| Forge FC | Draw | Vancouver FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 25% | 10% |
| Market | 65% | 22% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.16Forge FC 1.66 · Vancouver FC 0.5
BTTSNo · 67%
Most likely total2 goals
💎 ValueUnder 2.5 goals · +7.2%The model gives this bet 7.2% more probability than its odds (2.00) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forge FC (rating 1602 vs 1484).
- H2H favours Forge FC: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Forge FC | Vancouver FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.3 | 3.3 / 7.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 4 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Forge FC 5–1–0 Vancouver FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/26 Canada Premier League | Vancouver FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Forge FC |
| 04/10/25 Canada Premier League | Forge FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Vancouver FC |
| 23/08/25 Canada Premier League | Vancouver FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Forge FC |
| 05/07/25 Canada Premier League | Forge FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Vancouver FC |
| 15/06/25 Canada Premier League | Vancouver FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Forge FC |
| 22/09/24 Canada Premier League | Vancouver FC | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Forge FC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Forge FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | HFX Wanderers Canada Championships |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 13/04 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
Vancouver FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 18/05 | Cavalry FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 11/05 | Langley United Sa Canada Championships |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 04/05 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 13/04 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |