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Football · Canada Premier League · 01/07, 22:00

HFX Wanderers vs Atletico Ottawa

Expected goals: 2.86 (HFX Wanderers 1.44 · Atletico Ottawa 1.42). The model gives 36% home, 28% draw, 36% away. Over 2.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.

36%1
36% 28% 36%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HFX Wanderers 1450 · Atletico Ottawa 1549
HFX WanderersDrawAtletico Ottawa
Our model37%27%36%
Market36%28%36%
Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis
Expected goals2.86HFX Wanderers 1.44 · Atletico Ottawa 1.42
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Ottawa (rating 1450 vs 1549).
  • H2H favours Atletico Ottawa: 3-2-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

HFX WanderersAtletico Ottawa
Goals for / against (FT)1.1 / 1.81.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 0.80.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)10/50/40%10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 5.32.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4 / 03.5 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · HFX Wanderers 1–2–3 Atletico Ottawa

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DateHomeScoreAway
17/05/26
Canada Premier League
Atletico Ottawa1-0
HT 1-0
HFX Wanderers
18/10/25
Canada Premier League
HFX Wanderers0-1
HT 0-0
Atletico Ottawa
19/07/25
Canada Premier League
Atletico Ottawa2-0
HT 1-0
HFX Wanderers
24/05/25
Canada Premier League
HFX Wanderers2-0
HT 0-0
Atletico Ottawa
05/04/25
Canada Premier League
Atletico Ottawa2-2
HT 0-1
HFX Wanderers
29/09/24
Canada Premier League
Atletico Ottawa1-1
HT 1-0
HFX Wanderers

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Forge FC 10811 15425
2 Cavalry FC 10721 19523
3 Atletico Ottawa 10424 151814
4 HFX Wanderers 11335 141612
5 Inter Toronto 9333 131712
6 Supra du Quebec 9324 131411
7 Vancouver FC 10325 91111
8 Pacific FC (CA) 11038 12253

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentHFX WanderersAtletico Ottawa
Pacific FC (CA) 5-2 W 2-2 D
Forge FC 0-1 L 2-1 W
Cavalry FC 0-2 L 1-3 L
Vancouver FC 1-0 W 1-2 L
Inter Toronto 1-1 D 1-4 L
Supra du Quebec 1-2 L 5-3 W
Record vs common 2 W 1 D 3 L 2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HFX Wanderers (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HFX Wanderers

DLLLLDWLLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
26/06 Pacific FC (CA)
Canada Premier League
 2-1 5-2 102 W
11/06 Forge FC
Canada Premier League
 0-0 0-1 45 L
07/06 Cavalry FC
Canada Premier League
 0-0 0-2 15 L
30/05 Vancouver FC
Canada Premier League
 0-0 1-0 –– W
23/05 Inter Toronto
Canada Premier League
 1-1 1-1 54 D
17/05 Atletico Ottawa
Canada Premier League
 0-1 0-1 55 L
09/05 Forge FC
Canada Championships
 0-2 0-4 62 L
02/05 Forge FC
Canada Premier League
 0-1 1-3 64 L
25/04 Supra du Quebec
Canada Premier League
 1-1 1-2 55 L
18/04 Pacific FC (CA)
Canada Premier League
 0-1 2-2 –– D

Atletico Ottawa

LWDLWWWDLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
10/06 Supra du Quebec
Canada Premier League
 1-3 5-3 70 W
06/06 Vancouver FC
Canada Premier League
 0-2 1-2 34 L
31/05 Pacific FC (CA)
Canada Premier League
 0-1 2-2 94 D
24/05 Forge FC
Canada Premier League
 0-0 2-1 43 W
17/05 HFX Wanderers
Canada Premier League
 1-0 1-0 15 W
06/05 Toronto FC
Canada Championships
 0-1 3-1 65 W
02/05 Inter Toronto
Canada Premier League
 0-0 1-4 35 L
26/04 Vancouver FC
Canada Premier League
 0-0 1-1 43 D
19/04 Supra du Quebec
Canada Premier League
 0-0 1-0 23 W
12/04 Cavalry FC
Canada Premier League
 0-2 1-3 44 L