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Football · Brazil Serie B · 07/07, 00:00

Botafogo SP vs Avai

Expected goals: 2.14 (Botafogo SP 1.23 · Avai 0.91). The model gives 43% home, 31% draw, 26% away. Over 2 goals (51%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.

43%1
43% 31% 26%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo SP 1467 · Avai 1463
Botafogo SPDrawAvai
Our model42%32%26%
Market43%31%26%
Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis
Expected goals2.14Botafogo SP 1.23 · Avai 0.91
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 51%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Avai: 3-3-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Botafogo SPAvai
Goals for / against (FT)0.7 / 0.91.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)0.2 / 0.40.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)10/60/30%30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)2.2 / 6.21.3 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)5.6 / 0.14 / 0.3

Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo SP 0–3–3 Avai

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DateHomeScoreAway
23/11/25
Brazil Serie B
Botafogo SP0-0
HT 0-0
Avai
29/07/25
Brazil Serie B
Avai5-0
HT 4-0
Botafogo SP
19/11/24
Brazil Serie B
Botafogo SP1-3
HT 1-0
Avai
31/07/24
Brazil Serie B
Avai1-1
HT 0-0
Botafogo SP
07/10/23
Brazil Serie B
Botafogo SP0-1
HT 0-0
Avai
11/06/23
Brazil Serie B
Avai1-1
HT 1-0
Botafogo SP

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Vila Nova 15843 231728
2 Gremio Novorizontino 15762 241427
3 Criciuma 15762 171127
4 Sao Bernardo SP 15744 201225
5 EC Juventude 15744 16825
6 Operario PR 15744 191725
7 Fortaleza 15744 181625
8 Sport Recife 15672 181125
9 Athletic Club MG 15573 161522
10 Goias 15636 142121
11 Atletico GO 15564 181621
12 Nautico 15627 211920
13 Cuiaba 15483 11920
14 Ceara 15456 151817
15 Botafogo SP 14446 141316
16 CRB 14446 232416
17 Londrina 15438 192415
18 Avai 15348 152113
19 Ponte Preta 152211 10298
20 America MG 151311 10266

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentBotafogo SPAvai
Ceara 1-0 W 1-2 L
Athletic Club MG 1-2 L 0-1 L
Goias 0-1 L 0-2 L
Cuiaba 1-1 D 1-0 W
Record vs common 1 W 1 D 2 L 1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Botafogo SP (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo SP

DDDLLLDLWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
21/06 Ceara
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 1-0 54 W
15/06 Operario PR
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 2-1 27 W
09/06 Vila Nova
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 0-1 95 L
02/06 Ponte Preta
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-0 126 D
26/05 Athletic Club MG
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 1-2 66 L
16/05 Goias
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-1 57 L
11/05 Gremio Novorizontino
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-1 16 L
02/05 Nautico
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 1-1 114 D
23/04 Cuiaba
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 1-1 47 D
19/04 Atletico GO
Brazil Serie B
 1-1 1-1 75 D

Avai

DLWLWLLLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
28/06 Athletic Club MG
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-1 32 L
21/06 Cuiaba
Brazil Serie B
 1-0 1-0 12 W
16/06 Londrina
Brazil Serie B
 1-1 2-3 64 L
11/06 Ceara
Brazil Serie B
 0-2 1-2 05 L
07/06 Chapecoense
Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste
 0-1 0-3 46 L
04/06 Chapecoense
Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste
 3-0 3-0 16 W
30/05 Criciuma
Brazil Serie B
 0-1 1-2 34 L
28/05 Volta Redonda
Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste
 1-0 3-0 25 W
25/05 Goias
Brazil Serie B
 0-0 0-2 14 L
21/05 Volta Redonda
Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste
 1-1 2-2 45 D