Football · Brazil Serie B · 03/07, 02:00

Fortaleza vs Ponte Preta

Expected goals: 2.63 (Fortaleza 1.81 · Ponte Preta 0.83). The model gives 60% home, 25% draw, 16% away. Over 2.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-0.

60%1

60% 25% 16%

Model analysis

Expected goals2.63Fortaleza 1.81 · Ponte Preta 0.83

Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 51%

BTTSYes · 51%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortaleza (rating 1495 vs 1403).
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fortaleza	Ponte Preta
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	0.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	3.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.6

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortaleza 0–1–1 Ponte Preta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/10/18 Brazil Serie B	Fortaleza	1-1 HT 0-0	Ponte Preta
08/07/18 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	2-0 HT 2-0	Fortaleza

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	15	8	4	3	23	17	28
2	Gremio Novorizontino	15	7	6	2	24	14	27
3	Criciuma	15	7	6	2	17	11	27
4	Sao Bernardo SP	15	7	4	4	20	12	25
5	Operario PR	15	7	4	4	19	17	25
6	Sport Recife	14	6	7	1	17	9	25
7	EC Juventude	14	6	4	4	14	8	22
8	Fortaleza	14	6	4	4	16	15	22
9	Nautico	14	6	2	6	21	18	20
10	Cuiaba	15	4	8	3	11	9	20
11	Athletic Club MG	14	4	7	3	15	15	19
12	Goias	14	5	3	6	13	21	18
13	Atletico GO	14	4	6	4	16	16	18
14	Ceara	14	4	5	5	15	16	17
15	Botafogo SP	14	4	4	6	14	13	16
16	CRB	14	4	4	6	23	24	16
17	Londrina	15	4	3	8	19	24	15
18	Avai	14	3	4	7	15	20	13
19	Ponte Preta	14	2	2	10	10	27	8
20	America MG	15	1	3	11	10	26	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fortaleza	Ponte Preta
Sport Recife	2-1 W	1-3 L
CRB	1-1 D	2-4 L
America MG	0-3 L	1-0 W
Londrina	3-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fortaleza (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fortaleza

LWWLLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
21/06	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
17/06	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	10	3	L
10/06	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
06/06	Vitoria Brazil Copa Nordeste	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
03/06	Vitoria Brazil Copa Nordeste	0-0	1-2	3	8	L
30/05	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
28/05	Sport Recife Brazil Copa Nordeste	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
23/05	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	5	7	W
21/05	Sport Recife Brazil Copa Nordeste	0-1	1-2	3	6	L

Ponte Preta

WLLLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
23/06	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
14/06	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
10/06	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
02/06	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
24/05	CRB Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-4	5	3	L
19/05	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-4	11	7	L
09/05	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-3	11	9	L
03/05	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	6	5	L
25/04	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	6	W