⚽ Football · Brazil Serie B · 27/06, 16:00
Operario PR vs America MG
50%1
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.2Operario PR 1.75 · America MG 1.45
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 53%
BTTSYes · 63%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValueDraw +6.1%The model gives this bet 6.1% more probability than its odds (2.025) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Estimate (3.2) is far from Bet365's line (2): possible value on Over 2.
- High estimate: 3.2 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.6 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Operario PR | America MG | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.7 | 2.5 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.5 | 5.3 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Operario PR 2–2–2 America MG
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/25 | America MG | 1-1 | Operario PR |
| 05/05/25 | Operario PR | 1-0 | America MG |
| 24/10/24 | Operario PR | 1-0 | America MG |
| 06/07/24 | America MG | 2-0 | Operario PR |
| 21/11/20 | Operario PR | 0-1 | America MG |
| 15/08/20 | America MG | 1-1 | Operario PR |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Operario PR
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
3-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 15/06 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 25/05 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
1-2 | 2-6 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | Fluminense Copa do Brasil |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 07/05 | Chapecoense Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-1 | 1-2 | 16 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
America MG
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 09/06 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 07/05 | Cianorte Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 04/05 | CRB Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 30/04 | Chapecoense Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 6 | L |