⚽ Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/07, 22:00
SD Aucas vs Guayaquil City
59%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SD Aucas 1548 · Guayaquil City 1479
| SD Aucas | Draw | Guayaquil City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 28% | 16% |
| Market | 62% | 24% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.31SD Aucas 1.57 · Guayaquil City 0.74
Most likely total2 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SD Aucas (rating 1548 vs 1479).
- H2H favours SD Aucas: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SD Aucas | Guayaquil City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.5 | 0.9 / 2.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.4 | 4 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Aucas 3–1–2 Guayaquil City
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Guayaquil City | 1-1 HT 1-1 | SD Aucas |
| 01/10/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Guayaquil City | 0-1 HT 0-1 | SD Aucas |
| 29/04/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Guayaquil City |
| 28/08/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Guayaquil City |
| 17/04/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Guayaquil City | 4-0 HT 2-0 | SD Aucas |
| 28/11/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Guayaquil City | 1-0 HT 1-0 | SD Aucas |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
SD Aucas
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 26/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 28/04 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 23/04 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/04 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
Guayaquil City
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 19/05 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 14/05 | Astillero FC Ecuador Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 22/04 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |